With Week 11 in the books, a clear picture is beginning to develop as to which teams you should be betting each week, which teams you should be staying away from, and which teams you should just fade as if your life depended on it.
|Team||ATS Record||ROI $||ROI %|
|New Orleans Saints||6-3-1||-$63.60||-31.80%|
|San Francisco 49ers||6-3-1||-$63.60||-31.80%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||6-4-0||-$44.80||-22.40%|
|New York Jets||6-4-0||-$44.80||-22.40%|
|San Diego Chargers||5-4-1||-$24.80||-12.40%|
|New England Patriots||5-5-0||-$6.00||-3.00%|
|New York Giants||4-6-0||$32.80||16.40%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||4-6-0||$32.80||16.40%|
|St. Louis Rams||4-6-0||$32.80||16.40%|
|Green Bay Packers||4-6-0||$32.80||16.40%|
Not surprisingly, bad teams such as the Jaguars, Texans and Falcons are teams that you should bet against every week. And, given the way each of them have looked, fading them continues to look like a solid idea until lines are adjusted to level the playing field back in their favor.
This is especially true of the Falcons who, despite looking worse and worse each week, continue to not be huge underdogs in Vegas. For example, they are only a nine point underdog as of right now against the New Orleans Saints, despite the fact that the Saints look like world beaters and the Falcons were just blown out by the Tampa Bay Schiano Men.
My advice would be to bet heavily on the Falcons until bettors stop betting their lines down, assuming that bettors ever wise up and do that and don't keep throwing their money away on this terrible team.