There are some NFL teams that you would never pick straight up (Hi, Greg Schiano!). But is it profitable to bet against those same bad teams against the spread?
I compiled a chart of every team in the NFL, sorted by their record against the spread this season. Taking that information, I then listed the amount of money you would win or lose by betting $20 against them each week at odds of -110, along with the return on investment for each team.
|Team||ATS Record||ROI $||ROI %|
|San Francisco 49ers||6-2-0||-$82.40||-51.50%|
|San Diego Chargers||5-1-1||-$81.20||-57.90%|
|New Orleans Saints||5-2-0||-$62.40||-44.60%|
|New York Jets||5-3-0||-$43.60||-27.20%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||5-3-0||-$43.60||-27.20%|
|Green Bay Packers||4-3-0||-$23.60||-16.90%|
|New England Patriots||4-4-0||-$4.80||-3.00%|
|New York Giants||3-5-0||$34.00||21.30%|
|St. Louis Rams||3-5-0||$34.00||21.30%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1-6-0||$92.80||66.30%|
Not surprisingly, betting against teams such as the Jaguars and Bucs has been a profitable exercise for bettors. One team that did stand out, though, was the Chicago Bears, who performed well early in the season but have been cruel to bettors who have backed them through seven games.
It is also worth noting, before we all run out and make sure to bet against the Jags for their next eight games, that Jacksonville is getting to the easy part of its schedule after their Week Nine bye. Seven of their final eight games are against teams that are .500 or worse. This probably won't translate to wins, but will make their games against the spread much more of a challenge for bettors.
The Buccaneers, however, are still totally fair game. Go bet your money against them.