Dear lord, last week was a bad week of picking football games. Let's hope this week is less bad. Let's get into it.
DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens
Man, these teams are evenly matched in DVOA, which explains the three point spread in favor of the home team here. But there's something about this Miami team that has me confident in them at home. Being one of three teams to allow fewer than six yards per pass attempt will do that to you. They'll get a huge win for their playoff hopes here.
BENGALS -3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh's secondary has been trash this year, allowing a 27th best 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season. In fact, the Steelers are ranked 29th in DVOA on defense, which is just plain unacceptable in important late season games on the road. Cincy is going to get a much needed win in this game.
Colts -3.5 over BROWNS
The only way that Johnny Manziel is going to get playing time in the NFL is for the Browns to lose a bunch of games. They will push the team one step closer to starting him by letting an Indy team that murks bad teams win in this one.
Texans -5.5 over JAGUARS
Jacksonville's 32nd ranked offense by DVOA isn't a good situation against a Houston defense led by the actual Incredible Hulk in JJ Watt.
TITANS +1 over Giants
The Giants are worse than the Titans in every per play yardage category, which is utterly depressing. Zach Mettenberger has been better this season than Eli Manning. Whatever. There's always next year.
Panthers +9.5 over SAINTS
That's a lotta fuggin' points.
Buccaneers +10 over LIONS
Rams -3 over Washington
St. Louis is top ten in the NFL in DVOA on defense these days, which is mind blowing given their struggles earlier this season. They will destroy a Washington team in all kinds of disarray right now.
Jets +5.5 over VIKINGS
These teams are too evenly matched for this large a spread, with them separated by one spot in DVOA on both offense and defense. The Jets will keep this one close against a crappy Vikings offense.
BRONCOS -10 over Bills
Kyle Orton at Peyton Manning. lol
Chiefs -1 over CARDINALS
This Drew Stanton thing isn't working for the Cardinals, who have dropped to 24th in the league in DVOA on offense. #SmittyTime gets it done here.
49ers -8.5 over RAIDERS
Must win for the Niners. 'Nuff said.
Seahawks +1.5 over EAGLES
Seattle is the best team in the NFC right now, whether you want to admit it or not.
Patriots -3.5 over CHARGERS
Good luck with Brady after a loss, San Diego.
Falcons +12.5 over PACKERS
Before you give this many points, maybe you should R-E-L-A-X.
Last Week: 4-12
This Week: 0-1
2014 NFL ATS: 99-93-1 (51.6%)