Football is back. It's really back. Tonight. The team that won last year's Super Bowl is even playing. This shit is legit! And to celebrate this occasion, it's time to revive the half-season old tradition of breaking down and picking NFL games. Let's do this.
Line: SEAHAWKS (-5.5) vs. Packers
If this over/under was the over/under for Seahawks points in the Super Bowl, the over still would have hit.
These two teams have not faced off since 2012, when those goofy replacement refs made that really bad call and gave legitimacy to Golden Tate's career, which we should all resent them for.
Last season, neither of these teams were particularly consistent at hitting overs, with Seattle only hitting seven of 19, while Green Bay was a coin flip with nine overs to eight unders.
However, holy shit are there going to be a lot of defensive penalties tonight, if the preseason was any indication as to what direction the league wants to go in terms of physicality by defensive backs. Both teams are going to struggle with that a bit, which will drive this point total up somewhat. It'll be interesting to see how this affects over/under percentages in the early parts of the season.
Anyway, I like the over here.
Over/Under: OVER 47
As for the game itself, it's really hard to see the Seahawks not winning by at least a touchdown. Home teams in these Thursday night season opening games have been nothing short of invincible, and none of those teams have the distinct home field advantage (read: artificial crowd noise) that Seattle does.
While both teams will struggle with the officials' emphasis on defensive back play, Seattle's secondary is far superior to Green Bay's, making that less of a factor for the Seahawks.
This game is being bet on at a nearly 50/50 split, with 51% of bettors backing the Seahawks, yet the point spread has shifted by two full points from its original position at Seattle -3.5. That certainly doesn't mean that the big bets are coming in on Green Bay.
Pick: SEAHAWKS -5.5
Last Season (including playoffs): 79-76-7