Thursday Night Football is hard enough to bet on when you're dealing with two consistent football teams. When two teams that followed up wins with losses to the Jaguars and Rams are involved? Even worse.
After taking out the Denver Broncos and dispatching the Houston Texans, the Colts got demolished 38-8 by Kellen Clemens and the St. Louis Rams. Tennessee followed up a win over the Rams with a loss to the previously winless Jacksonville Jaguars. God help us all, but here's tonight's betting guide.
Point Spread: Colts -3
As far as the over/under goes, these two teams have gone over the total in six of their last eight games combined. The Colts will presumably score more than eight points tonight, while the Titans are always good for a defensive touchdown one way or the other. The over seems pretty safe to me here.
Over/Under Pick: OVER 42.5
Against the spread, this game depends entirely on which Colts team shows up. If the Peyton Manning destroying Colts are the ones we get, the Colts will make quick work of the Titans in this one. If the "Zac Stacy rushed for like 400 yards" Colts show up, things will clearly swing the other way. As obvious as that is, it needed to be pointed out that the Colts are very inconsistent.
These teams have nearly identical scoring defenses, with the Colts allowing just 0.4 points per game less than Tennessee. Indy, however, has allowed an extra 40.9 yards per game with these teams playing close to identical schedules to this point in the season. Tennessee's -0.7% DVOA on defense is slightly better than the Colts' 21st ranked 3.0%.
Offensively, the Colts are 2.5 points per game better than the Titans and about 25 yards per game better than them as well. Indy's 4.7% DVOA on offense is 13th in the league, while Tennessee sits in 20th in that category at -4.0%.
At the end of the day, there isn't a whole lot separating these two teams statistically. Where the big difference lies in this game is the quarterback position. As tempting as it is to take the field goal underdog at home, it's hard to take Ryan Fitzpatrick over Andrew Luck who, while struggling without Reggie Wayne, still isn't Ryan Fitzpatrick.
TWEETS FROM COLTS/TITANS FANS:
Jesus, that Colts tweet made me want to pick the Titans. Do all Colts fans use that many hashtags?
ATS Pick: Colts -3
Betspin Over/Under Record: 1-1-1
Betspin All-Time NFL ATS Record: 17-24-1