Hot Picks. Hot Takes.

Thursday Night Football is terrible. The football has been bad in each of the first five games, and it's probably never going to be good. But we're still going to watch, and gamble on it. So let's break this bad boy down.

Line: Colts -3 vs. TEXANS

Over/Under: 46.5

The over has hit in all but one Thursday Night Football game so far this year, because defenses are currently so overworked by uptempo offenses that asking them to come back and perform admirably on four days rest is a goddamn terrible idea. It'll hit again here.


Over/Under: OVER 46.5

As far as the game itself is concerned, comparing these two teams is like comparing a sports car to a hybrid in a way. The hybrid is more efficient and economical, while the sports car can dust the living crap out of the hybrid with minimal effort.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a hybrid. He's safe and efficient, as evidenced by his 65% completion rate and 7.71 yards per pass attempt, a number that is actually good for 11th in the NFL to this point in the season.

Andrew Luck is a sports car. A sports car with a ridiculous beard, but still a sports car. He is asked to do a lot more than Fitzpatrick, and delivers. However, his 7.49 yards per pass attempt are slightly less efficient than Fitzpatrick's numbers. With that said, he's only thrown six picks so far this year, the same number as Fitzpatrick, with twice as many touchdowns as Fitzpatrick to boot.


With that dumb car analogy out of the way, these teams are relatively even in most statistical categories, including yards per rush, where the Colts are just a tenth of a yard behind the Texans per carry despite Indianapolis' much maligned rushing attack.

At the end of the day, this game comes down to whether or not you'd prefer the performance of a sports car or the efficiency and safety of a hybrid. I'm taking the sports car here.


Pick: Colts -3

Last Week: 6-9

2014 ATS: 40-36

2014 Over/Unders: 3-2

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