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Bill Simmons Had A Gambling Epiphany. It Did Not Help His NFL Picks.

When we last left Grantland Basketball Hour star and 30 For 30 honcho Bill Simmons, he had a gambling epiphany. Instead of just looking at win/loss records, he was going to get it together and make good NFL picks. This epiphany didn't appear to help him in Week Eight, where he went 5-10 against the spread.


But Simmons didn't just go 5-10 against the spread. That has surely happened to everyone and isn't worthy of scorn on its own. It's the fact that he seemed so confident about some of the worst picks on the board that week that makes his performance so worthy of derision.

The most egregious example of this was pointed out on Sunday night by Drew Magary of Halloween candy/beer appraisal blog Deadspin, where he seemed incredibly sure of the Packers covering against the New Orleans Saints.

This guy was so sure of the Packers covering in New Orleans, where the Saints have now covered in 19 of their last 21 games, that he actually embedded some 15-minute looped video in his column like a stooge. This did not go well for him.


Among his other notable failures:

  • He called the Seahawks only laying six points at Carolina "ridiculous." Seattle needed a late game winning drive to win by three, and failed to cover.
  • He noted that he can't trust Kyle Orton against the Jets, when Geno Smith and Michael Vick looked slightly less trustworthy in that football game.
  • He took the Bucs -3 over the Vikings, while also saying that Teddy Bridgewater would have a fantasy breakout game. Those outcomes are polar opposites, and yet neither of them happened.

As for Week Nine's Simmons picks, they're buried in a sidebar in this column about the freakish longevity of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. He is still including his 58-0 against the spread stretch during his suspension in his 2014 record in the column. If you took away those 58 games, his record would stand at 30-34.

You'll remember that ol' Billy hid his picks in sidebars quite a bit starting around this time last season as well. Since they aren't actually above .500 this season either, that'll probably happen again in 2014.


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