Hot Picks. Hot Takes.
Hot Picks. Hot Takes.
Illustration for article titled Betspins Week Six NFL Picks

This week's Thursday night game was fun, because the first quarter was dominated by people complaining about how bad Thursday Night Football is, while the second half was marked by a lot of quiet assed haters. Let's pick some more football games.


As always, spreads are from the Westgate Superbook (formerly known as the LVH) via VegasInsider, and bet trends mentioned are from SportsInsights. Home teams are mentioned in CAPS.

Broncos -9 over JETS

The Jets are in the middle of a week where it came out that their starting quarterback and coach can't figure out which time zone to run meetings in, while the backup quarterback is too busy making sure his checks are clearing to take his scout team snaps seriously. The Broncos are going to win by a lotta points.


BROWNS -1.5 over Steelers

Cleveland is fourth in the NFL in DVOA on offense this season, and have been good despite the huge deficiencies of their defense. Pittsburgh has looked like complete garbage lately.


Jaguars +4 over TITANS

Is Charlie Whitehurst going to start this game for the Titans? Zach Mettenberger? Either way, Blake Bortles is better than those scrubs. The strength of Jacksonville's defense (if you can call it a strength) is against the run, which happens to be the offensive facet Tennessee excels at. That will hurt Tennessee here.


Packers -3 over DOLPHINS

The Dolphins are tops in the NFL in yards against per pass attempt, but they've also played some shitty passing teams in Oakland and Buffalo, with their two challenging games both at home against New England and Kansas City. Aaron Rodgers appears to be back in form, and is throwing for a full two yards better per attempt than Ryan Tannehill.


Tannehill, by the way, is worse than everyone but Derek Carr in yards per pass attempt, which is crazy.

VIKINGS -2.5 over Lions

Three fifths of bettors are on the Lions here, but the line has moved as far as Vikings -4 here. Calvin Johnson being out is a huge blow to the Lions, who have looked anemic offensively in his relative absence.


Also encouraging for the Vikings is the fact that that useless tire fire Christian Ponder will be nowhere near the offense this week. Christian Ponder is an embarrassment.

BENGALS -6.5 over Panthers

Did you know that the Bengals have covered eleven straight home games? Did you also know that the Panthers' pass rush is complete garbage? Even without AJ Green, the Bengals will have a big game here after their huge slip up last Sunday night against the Patriots.


Patriots -2.5 over BILLS

I love Kyle Orton. But he's not going to be able to get away with a performance like last week's against the Patriots this week.


Ravens -3 over BUCCANEERS

I love me some Mike Glennon, because he's a Schiano Man. But nah.

Chargers -7 over RAIDERS

Oh, Derek Carr is probable. That will surely swing things in the Raiders' favo-[huge fart noise]


Bears +3 over FALCONS

Atlanta's defense is worst in the league in yards against per pass attempt, and 20th in yards against per rush attempt. That's not good.


Cowboys +8 over SEAHAWKS

At the very least, Dallas will run the ball and eat up a whole bunch of clock to keep this game close, because DeMarco Murray is great. Dallas may win outright.


CARDINALS -3.5 over Racists

Dan Snyder can digest a pineapple in reverse.

Giants +3 over EAGLES

The Eagles are being propped up by their special teams so far this season. Their defense is 16th in DVOA, and their overrated offense is 22nd in DVOA. If the Giants can avoid giving up a bunch of big special teams plays, they should win this game straight up. Knowing this, the Giants will characteristically give up seven special teams touchdowns.


49ers -3.5 over RAMS

I don't believe in you, Austin Davis.

This Week: 1-0

2014 ATS: 41-36

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