Alright, so last week's picks were terrible. 4-9, while it's not 2-13, is pretty embarrassing. I'll try to better with this set of Week Nine NFL picks.
Each week, I'll run through each game and pick against the spreads, to deliver you the tools to win some ungodly sum of money. No totals for Sunday's games, though. Totals are only to be bet when there is nothing else to watch, and even then it's a horrible idea. Onto this week's picks. Point spreads are from the LVH, via VegasInsider. Betting trends from SportsInsights andRegressing. Home teams are in CAPS.
Bengals (-3) over DOLPHINS
Well, I feel like an idiot now. Thanks for showing up that night, Andy Dalton.
Atlanta (+7) over PANTHERS
The Panthers are an okay football team, but they have beaten literally zero competent football teams. Their four wins have come against teams (Giants, Bucs, Rams, Vikings) with a combined six (!) wins. Atlanta themselves are pretty bad this year, but I don't see them being bad enough to lose by a touchdown here.
This line stayed consistent this week, despite a majority of bettors choosing the Panthers. That leads me to believe that many casual bettors are placing smaller bets on Carolina, with some bigger bets coming in on Atlanta to even out the money.
DALLAS (-9.5) over Minnesota
Giving this many points despite the fact that the underdogs have covered in 71% of Dallas' games in the last four years is scary. But Minnesota is so terrible. Christian Ponder is going to play again this week, and Tony Romo will demolish that Vikings secondary.
What really pushed me over the top, though, was the fact that Cowherd picked the Vikings in his Blazing Five, which have been atrocious this year. Fading Cowherd is always a great tiebreaker when making NFL picks.
JETS (+6.5) over Saints
I'm going to hate myself when Drew Brees picks up where he left off last week against the Bills, but this line opened at Saints -3.5. Nearly 90% of bettors have jumped on the Saints since then, and it has ballooned to -6.5. New Orleans struggles to cover on the road, and this spread wouldn't be so high if the Saints hadn't played extremely well last week while the Jets played like garbage.
Titans (-3) over RAMS
This is Jeff Fisher's revenge game against the Titans, and also a rematch of the One Yard Short Super Bowl. That's kind of neat in a completely irrelevant to betting on sports sort of way.
As for the game itself, Jake Locker has had a bye week to heal up, while Kellen Clemens is still Kellen Clemens. Both of these teams struggle to move the ball, so the edge goes to the team that possesses a starting quarterback without a torn ACL.
Kansas City (-3.5) over BUFFALO
Thad Lewis probably isn't going to play, which means that either Jeff Tuel or Matt Flynn will be thrown to the wolves against the best defense in the NFL. While Buffalo has covered in all four of their home games this season, I cannot in all good conscience pass up giving less than a touchdown to Jeff Tuel or Matt Flynn.
San Diego (PK) over WASHINGTON
The Chargers are coming off of a bye, while Washington just got torn a new one by Peyton Manning. Washington is allowing just over 12 points per game more than the Chargers after eight weeks. Good enough for me.
Nearly two thirds of the bets on this game are on San Diego, yet the line has not moved in Washington's favor at all. I will punch myself in the Adam's apple for failing to use this obvious sign that big money is on Washington when the Chargers lose by a point.
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Eagles
Nick Foles has been named the starter for Philly, who haven't scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks. They would have been shut out last week against the pathetic Giants, but the Giants decided to derp-gift Philly a late touchdown on special teams.
On a side note, the Raiders are kind of good at football now, aren't they? They are a top five team when it comes to running the ball and are in the top half of the league in scoring defense. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly is looking like a huge bust. On the bright side, while he may suck, he sucks FAST!!!!! If Schiano wasn't in the NFL, a lot more attention would be paid to Kelly's failures so far this year.
SEATTLE (-15.5) over Buccaneers
If the Seahawks don't win this game by 73 points, and Greg Schiano isn't fired before he can shake Pete Carroll's hand after the game, this game will be nothing but a huge waste of time. Also, take the time to savor this gem from R.J. Bell:
Bucs have lost 12 straight games when opponent has not rested starters
So, maybe the Seahawks will rest their starters?
CLEVELAND (+2) over Baltimore
This line started at 2.5 points but, even with over 70% of bettors on the Ravens, it has dropped a half point. This is a textbook example of the “$20 bettors” jumping on the defending champions, while the real value rests with the home underdogs. Either that, or bookmakers realized that Cowherd was on the Ravens and that everyone is fading him.
Steelers (+6) over PATRIOTS
Only one team in the NFL is racking up fewer yards per pass than the Patriots, and that's the Buccaneers. When Tom Brady is less effective than everyone in the NFL except for Mike Glennon, you take the points.
Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS
The last time the Texans had a night game, Matt Schaub staged his own funeral on live television. Even without Reggie Wayne, there's no way the Colts don't cover here.
PACKERS (-10.5) over Bears
Chicago has covered once this season. One time. And that one time was with Jay Cutler under center. This week, they run into a Packers team that is in rhythm after a warm-up game against the Vikings, on the road, and with Josh McCown at quarterback. With an opportunity to put multiple games between themselves and the Bears, I expect the Packers to make no question of this one.
Betspin ATS This Week: 0-1
Betspin ATS All-Time: 4-11