Hell of a week for the NFL, amirite? Like I said in my Ravens/Steelers pick piece (in which I picked a winner), the NFL is a pack of cigarettes that we're all using to calm ourselves down from the stress of football itself. So let's take a big ol' drag of this week's picks.
Week Two, by the way, is overreaction week in the NFL each season. Every idiot bettor overreacts heavily to what they saw in Week One, and this leads to some pretty juicy lines for more savvy folks. Let's break 'em down.
PANTHERS -2.5 over Lions
The Lions looked great against the third Manning brother and a defense that may be worse than all but Dallas', while the Panthers grinded out a win over Tampa Bay with Derek Anderson at the helm. Therefore, we get this overreaction line!
This Carolina defense is great, and Cam Newton is back this week. 70% of bettors are on the Lions, which moved this line just under a field goal, providing even more of a reason to grab the Panthers here.
BILLS -1 over Dolphins
A majority of bettors are on Miami here, because they looked hella good at home against New England, whose name still carries enough weight to influence a line the following week. The Bills, though, defeated a tougher opponent in Chicago on the road. The perception of Jay Cutler and the Bears, however, isn't looked at as favorably as the Pats, so Miami is getting love here. Another overreaction!
In addition to that nonsense, Bills fans are riding the whole keeping their team in this state/country thing, AND Jim Kelly is now cancer free. May be a raucous atmosphere in Orchard Park.
Jaguars +6 over RACISTS
I'm going to lose this game no matter who I pick. There are no winners here.
TITANS -3.5 over Cowboys
More than half of bettors are on Dallas, who didn't look so hot at home last week. If nothing else, those people are more courageous than I.
Cardinals -2.5 over GIANTS
I'd take Carson Palmer on my team over Eli Manning at this stage. Unfortunately for me, my team is the one with Eli Manning on it. Damn it all.
Over three quarters of bettors are on the Cards, by the way, which has moved this line by more than three points. I don't care. I'm not deterred, because the Giants are the worst thing in the world.
VIKINGS +6 over Patriots
Coming into today, Minnesota was a three points underdog, which looked very appetizing as is. With Adrian Peterson deactivated for hitting a kid with a tree branch (!), that line has opened up another three points.
Here's the thing, no player that isn't a quarterback is worth a full field goal to the spread. Matt Asiata will go in there and run the ball and, while he obviously won't magically become Adrian Peterson, he will be serviceable.
Oh, and the Patriots are complete garbage. So give me six against them all day everyday.
BROWNS +6.5 over Saints
The Saints are bad on the road. The Saints are bad outdoors. Brian Hoyer is healthy and throwing darts. Sorry, Johnny Football, but you're going to have to ride this out a little longer.
BENGALS -6 over Falcons
If you think the Matt Ryan you saw last week, who was at home against a bad defense, is the one you're going to see this week then you deserve zero dollars forever.
BUCCANEERS -5.5 over Rams
I have zero confidence in Tampa Bay. But holy shit are the Rams bad. The best team in college football would hang fifty on those idiots.
CHARGERS +6 over Seahawks
I know that Seattle looked great last week, and San Diego didn't. But mixing those two things together has inflated what should be a four point spread to what we have here. With nearly eighty percent of bettors on Seattle, the line has only moved a point.
RAIDERS +3 over Texans
Ryan Fitzpatrick as a road favorite makes me want to throw up. This game will end in a scoreless draw.
PACKERS -7.5 over Jets
I can lay just over a touchdown against a team that let Derek Carr cover in his first game ever in what was essentially a 10 a.m. start for Oakland. I can do that with great pleasure.
Chiefs +12 over BRONCOS
Twelve points is too damn much, man.
Bears +6.5 over 49ERS
The Bears looked average against a pretty good Bills team, while San Fran looked great against a terrible Cowboys team. That's a recipe for another overreaction line. The Bears lose by a field goal.
Eagles +3.5 over Colts
Indy will fall behind by double digits like always, then claw back to win by three points, because that's what they do.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-8