The New Orleans Saints are clearly leaps and bounds better than the Atlanta Falcons this season. But are the Saints 7.5 points better than the Falcons tonight? Let's get to tonight's preview and find out.
Point Spread: Saints -7.5
Obviously, it has to be pointed out that the Saints are nowhere near as good on the road as they are at home. In fact, they have won one of their four road games this season by more than a touchdown, and that was in Week 5 against the Bears.
With that said, the Saints are leaps and bounds better than Atlanta in every statistical category you could think of both offensively and defensively. DVOA, turnover margin, yardage statistics, scoring statistics, you name it. New Orleans is better than the Falcons in each and every one. Then again, most teams are better than Atlanta across the board, given that the Falcons are contenders to win the number one pick in next year's draft.
This is truly a question of how well the Saints will be able to handle the Georgia Dome crowd, but the Falcons have lost each of their last four games by 13 points or more. I don't think that the Falcons' home crowd will break that streak, even if that extra half point scares me a little bit.
ATS Pick: Saints -7.5
As for the over/under, the only think that could derail the over in my opinion is the Falcons offense failing to generate enough points to make it happen. I think that they will score once or twice in garbage time to break the over. I'd be shocked if the Saints didn't approach 35 in this game.
Over/Under Pick: OVER 53
ATS Last Week: 6-6-3
Betspin Over/Under All-Time: 2-1-1
Betspin All-Time NFL ATS: 23-30-4