There are only eight more weeks of NFL regular season games, which means that there are only eight more truly great Sundays left in the entire year. That's a huge bummer. You know what's not a huge bummer? Picking NFL games. Let's do it.
JAGUARS +7 over Cowboys (game in London)
Tony Romo is going to play in this game with a broken back, which doesn't seem like the responsible thing for the Cowboys to do. By the way, nearly 85% of bettors are on the Cowboys in this game, yet the line has continued to move Jacksonville's way.
Also, Jacksonville's defense is 10th in the NFL in DVOA, a full 12 spots ahead of Dallas. I had not realized that. I really like the Jags in this spot, especially when factoring in that their fan support is probably better in London than it is in Jacksonville.
LIONS -2.5 over Dolphins
This game is a battle between the top two DVOA defenses in the NFL, but Miami is surely overvalued after smashing San Diego last week, in a game where the Dolphins were clearly emotional in the wake of coach Joe Philbin's father passing away.
But even more importantly: CALVIN BACK.
Chiefs -1 over BILLS
In my opinion, the home field advantage in Buffalo is greatly overstated. Their two home wins have been against Miami, just days after the Bills were bought by a Buffalo resident, and against the Peterson-less Vikings. Those are really extenuating circumstances in which to get home wins. I'm sticking with Smitty here.
SAINTS -5.5 over Niners
Home Saints. 'Nuff said.
RAVENS -9.5 over Titans
A Ravens team off a blowout loss to a bitter division rival in which there were many personal fouls and fights and shit? Baltimore is going to come out and win this game by 30 on anger alone.
Steelers -3.5 over JETS
I can't pick the Jets here, even if that's a prudent thing to do. These two teams aren't on the same planet right now.
Falcons -2.5 over BUCCANEERS
These are far and away two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The difference here, though, is in their pass offenses. Atlanta is top ten in pass offense by both yards per pass attempt and DVOA, while the Bucs are squarely in the bottom ten in those categories.
Broncos -10.5 over RAIDERS
Peyton Manning is angry after last week, while you'd imagine that the Raiders played about as well as they could have possibly played last week in a seven point loss to Seattle, a game they needed several huge special teams plays to hang around in.
Rams +6.5 over CARDINALS
Arizona will win this game, but the Rams' pass rush is starting to get it together, and Austin Davis continues to get less bad at football each week. Arizona is 24th in DVOA on offense, while St. Louis is 26th, so the gap in talent here isn't extreme despite what each team's record would suggest.
Giants +9 over SEAHAWKS
Eventually the Giants won't disappoint me. They will keep this game relatively close, because Seattle is legitimately bad right now.
PACKERS -7 over Bears
Packers off a bye against a ghastly Bears team, a Bears team that is 30th in the NFL in yards against per pass attempt? I'll lay a touchdown here.
Panthers +7 over EAGLES
Panthers on an extra few days rest against a team led by Mark Sanchez at quarterback, who is still Mark Sanchez despite beating up on an average Houston defense last week? I will not lay a touchdown here.
This Week: 1-0
2014 ATS: 73-61-1 (54.5%)